Wheat Market Outlook and Prices

The Wheat Market Outlook is provided by Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc.

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World Wheat Overview:

International Grains Council (IGC) – Global Wheat Overview

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  • The latest IGC numbers on wheat state that ‘18/19 wheat production fell by 38.6 mln mt from the year prior.
  • Total ‘18/19 wheat availability at 1,001.1 mln mt is down by 27.6 mln mt due to carry-in from the previous year.
  • Global wheat consumption is up marginally to 739.2 mln mt.
  • Importantly, ‘18/19 wheat exports are projected to drop by 5.2 mln mt to 171.2 mln mt.
  • Global wheat ending stocks are projected to drop by 10.7 mln mt to 261.8 mln mt.

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Wheat Market Outlook

Significant events:

  • Russia won the entire 415k mt GASC tender at prices that were little changed despite the later positions.
  • French wheat was $7-10/mt too expensive on the GASC tender, and the volume/prices of Russian offers to GASC brought renewed doubt over the prospects for EU exports in the second half of the season.
  • The market was full of talk that China is looking for US wheat. But, similar to soybeans, private companies are not going to buy while the tariffs remain in place. If the state enterprises were to buy, this would be for the reserves rather than for the consumption market.
  • There are no fresh comments regarding the Russians restricting export sales

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Primary Elevator Bids

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Primary elevator bids data source: PDQ

Grade Spreads in Canadian Dollars

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Relevant FOB Prices and Calculated Basis

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CLICK HERE to learn what the basis is and why it is important.

 

 

 

adobe-acrobat-pdf-file-512 CLICK HERE for the full report in PDF.

For the archived wheat market outlook and price reports, please CLICK HERE

Latest Research

Saskatchewan Orange Wheat Blossom Midge Survey 2016 and 2017

The wheat midge survey consists of soil sampling (approximately 420 to 450 sites during September and October) followed by processing and analysis to be completed by the end of December. The data from the survey is used to create a forecast map of risk to wheat midge for the following growing season. Intended release date is for Crop Production Week in Saskatoon in early January.

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