Wheat Market Outlook and Prices

The Wheat Market Outlook is provided by Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc.

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World Wheat Overview:

July 12/’18 USDA WASDE Report – Wheat

world-wheat-production-july-16

  • Last Thursday’s WASDE report showed an overall decrease in global wheat supply.
  • Despite a 9 mln bu increase in 2018/19 US wheat ending stocks, global stocks dropped by 5.3 mln mt to 260.9 mln mt (vs 264.5 mln mt expected).
  • US 2018/19 wheat production surpassed expectations of 1,857 mln bu at 1,881mln bu, however, but global wheat supply was lowered by 8.43 mln mt from June’s 744.69 mln mt to 736.36 mln mt. This is a 2.86% (21.66 mln mt) decrease from last year.
  • Most of this decrease came from the EU where production was revised down by 4.4 mln mt since the June report to 145.0 mln mt. The remainder of the decrease in world production came from Australia, where production was lowered 8.33% (2 mln mt) to 22 mln mt, China, where production was lowered 1 mln mt to 128 mln mt (vs Chinese Govt #s 122.5 mln), and Russia, which lost 1.5 mln mt since June for a total of 67 mln mt.

 

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Wheat Market Outlook

Significant events:

  • Wheat market support came mostly from the USDA world numbers, where production was lowered by over 8 mln mt, with notable declines in three of the world’s major exporters (the EU, FSU and Australia), while world ending stocks fell by over 5 mln mt from last month and 13 mln mt on the year.
  • In addition, the market considers the USDA’s EU and Black Sea wheat export numbers as too high, which should eventually switch additional demand into the US S&D.
  • US wheat became more competitive against the EU and Black Sea wheat with HRW 11% protein wheat ending US$3/mt below German wheat, and SRW ending Fob US$10/mt below French wheat. CBOT Sep futures over $30/mt below Matif wheat.

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Primary Elevator Bids

Click on the image for a version that can be enlargedprices-july-16

Primary elevator bids data source: PDQ

Grade Spreads in Canadian Dollarsgrade-spreads-july-16

Relevant FOB Prices and Calculated Basisfob-and-basis-july-16

CLICK HERE to learn what the basis is and why it is important.

 

adobe-acrobat-pdf-file-512 CLICK HERE for the full report in PDF.

For the archived wheat market outlook and price reports, please CLICK HERE.