Wheat Market Outlook and Prices

The Wheat Market Outlook is provided by Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc.

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World Wheat Overview:

2019/2020 Global Wheat Production Projection

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  • 2019 wheat production outlook: Mercantile sees global wheat production in 2019/10 to recover from the drought reduced numbers by ~23 mln mt, an increase of 3.1%  FAO also foresees global wheat production to strongly recover from last year, rising by 4.0%, to 757.4 million mt in 2019. The bulk of the recovery is expected in the EU, where a larger planted area, combined with thus far favourable weather, is seen driving up wheat production by at least 8% from last year’s six-year low.  In the Russian Federation, an expectation of increased overall plantings and beneficial weather could similarly push up production by almost 10%, while this year’s wheat output in the Ukraine is forecast to rise by nearly 8%.
  • Weather will need to be watched keenly to see where conditions warrant adjustments to these early projections.

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Wheat Market Outlook

Significant events:

  • Russia was still able to supply Turkey with 2290k mt of wheat for March-April shipment.
  • There was nothing fresh coming out of USA-China talks.
  • Funds: The recent selloff in Chicago-traded grain and oilseed futures has resulted in a record short speculative position across that market: Through Mch. 12, money managers expanded their net short in C. wheat futures and options to 49,286; funds increased bearish views in Minneapolis wheat during the period to 8,893.
  • FAO foresees global wheat production to strongly recover from last year, rising by 4.0% (+23 mln mt), to 757.4 million mt in 2019. The bulk of the recovery is expected in the EU, in the Russian Federation, and in the Ukraine. – Weather will have to be monitored carefully.

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Primary Elevator Bids

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Primary elevator bids data source: PDQ

Grade Spreads in Canadian Dollars

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Relevant FOB Prices and Calculated Basis

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CLICK HERE to learn what the basis is and why it is important.

 

 

 

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For the archived wheat market outlook and price reports, please CLICK HERE