Wheat Market Outlook and Prices

The Wheat Market Outlook is provided by Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc.

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World Wheat Overview:

Global Wheat Consumption

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  • USDA expects global wheat consumption to remain at record high levels in 2018/19 due to increased human consumption of wheat. Human wheat consumption is expected to reach a record high 602 million mt, 4% above the 5-year average. Over the past ten years, global human wheat consumption has increased by 90 mln mt, while feed wheat usage has increased by 16 mln mt.
  • At the same time, global supply of milling wheat is expected to fall this year due to challenging growing and harvesting conditions that hurt both quality and yields in many of the major wheat exporting countries. USDA expects global wheat production to fall to the lowest level in 5 years at 734 mln mt, down 4% from the record high of 763 mln mt in 2017/18. If realized, it would be 1% below the 5-year average and the first-time global wheat consumption has exceed global wheat production since 2012/13.

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Wheat Market Outlook

Significant events:

  • There are some good volume, higher quality wheat tenders expected over the next 10 days. In the context of partial ineligibility of Russian wheat, limited good quality supplies in the EU, ongoing weather concerns in Argentina, and contract lows in KC following the completion of fund liquidation, this may become interesting for North American wheat.
  • Fob values continue to do the work reallocating demand. Weather issues in South America are complicating the overall picture. This may cause Argentine to lose out to France in the next Algerian tender.

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Primary Elevator Bids

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Primary elevator bids data source: PDQ

Grade Spreads in Canadian Dollars

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Relevant FOB Prices and Calculated Basis

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CLICK HERE to learn what the basis is and why it is important.

 

 

 

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